Scary... so a scientist who has been right in the past predicts we'll have one possibly this week.
Here's an article from USC:
http://www.dailytrojan.com/main.cfm?...storyid=709259
Scientists say quake could hit by Sept. 5
USC scientist says earthquake prediction is unlikely, however.
By James R. Koren
Published: Thursday, September 2, 2004
An international team of scientists predicts that a moderate to major earthquake could hit southern California by Sunday, but other scientists and earthquake experts said the prediction is too vague to warrant special action.
The team, led by Russian-born Vladimir Keilis-Borok, predicted that an earthquake would hit the central portion of southern California between January and September.
The prediction states that an earthquake, of magnitude 6.4 or greater, will happen within a 12,440-square-mile area, including parts of Imperial, San Bernardino, San Diego and Riverside counties, according to the United States Geological Survey\'s Web site.
The nine-month window opened on Jan. 5, and closes this Sunday, Sept. 5.
The prediction is based on the theory that a series of small earthquakes often leads up to a large earthquake, said Thomas Jordan, professor of earth sciences and director of the Southern California Earthquake Center at USC.
Using this method, Keilis-Borok and his colleagues successfully predicted two earthquakes in 2003, a magnitude 8.1 earthquake that struck Hokkaido, Japan last September, and the magnitude 6.5 quake in San Simeon in December, according to the USGS.
If there is an earthquake in the specified region on or before Sunday, Keilis-Borok will have three correct predictions in a row.
Keilis-Borok and his team report that their predictions are right about 50 percent of the time, Jordan said.
"They probably can\'t predict earthquakes as well as they say they can," he said.
Within a nine-month period, the chance of randomly predicting an earthquake is about one in 12, or about 8 percent, Jordan said.
The Keilis-Borok team\'s chances of predicting an earthquake is somewhere between random and 50 percent, he said.
"They\'re scientists who are trying to figure out how to do this with very experimental techniques," he said.
There is evidence, however, that southern California is due for a large earthquake, and the predicted area includes several active faults - including the San Jacinto fault and the southern section of the San Andreas fault.
"The southern San Andreas is an active fault that has earthquakes about every 200 years, and it has been since about 1680 since that segment has ruptured," Jordan said.
However, the fault\'s 300-year hiatus does not suggest that it will produce and earthquake this week, this year or even this decade.
"We sometimes say that fault is 10-months pregnant. Is it going to happen in the next year? 10 years? 50 years? We don\'t know," Jordan said.
If an earthquake that meets the prediction\'s criteria does occur, the effect on the USC campus and downtown Los Angeles could range from slight to significant, Jordan said.
A magnitude 6.5 tremor in the specified region would not have much of an effect in Los Angeles, while a magnitude 7.5 quake could potentially cause damage to downtown or campus, he said.
USC has known about the prediction since its release, but the predicted area is far enough away from campus that the university did not take any special action, Bill Regensburger, director of fire safety and emergency planning, wrote in an e-mail.
If the prediction were for a quake closer to campus, Regensburger wrote that additional steps might have been taken.
The university has an emergency plan to use after any earthquake. Immediately after an earthquake, the emergency center would open, and response teams would check all campus buildings for damage and injuries, he wrote.
Regensburger wrote that housing facilities would be among the first buildings checked by emergency crews.
The emergency plan has been activated twice: during the 1992 riots and after the 1994 Northridge earthquake.
Buildings on campus have been affected very little by previous earthquakes, but the university is always strengthening buildings and preparing for the worst-case scenario, Regensburger wrote.
"Once everyone on campus is safe and secure, the next vital service is restoring the education and research programs, since that is our core function as a university," he said.
Whether or not the prediction proves true in the next few days, the science of earthquake prediction is still in its early stages, and more information is needed for the method to be considered seriously, said Mihailo Trifunac, professor of civil engineering.
"From a practical, societal point of view (this prediction is) not really a prediction," he said.
"As much as we\'re interested in all of these techniques, one would have to say we\'re not very confident of them. I would urge people to not consider (this prediction) a big deal," Jordan said.
"These are good scientists trying to do their jobs. I don\'t want to get people thinking there won\'t be an earthquake," he said.
The USGS recognizes Keilis-Borok\'s method as a legitimate part of the science of earthquake prediction, but the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council said that the current prediction does not warrant any special action, according to the USGS Web site.
Going into the last few days of the window, students said they weren\'t worried about the predicted quake.
"If it happens, it happens. If it doesn\'t, it doesn\'t," said John Wright, a junior majoring in policy, planning and development.
Olga Goija, a junior majoring in viola performance, said she isn\'t scared, and that it isn\'t human nature to be scared until something actually happens.
However, students in southern California should be prepared for an earthquake at any time, experts said.
"We should always be prepared here. If this predication comes and goes without being validated, it\'s just another in a long line," said Capt. John Castro of the Los Angeles Fire Department. "Living in an area like southern California, we\'re continuously at risk."
Jordan recommended that students have a plan for how to get in touch with their families if they were to lose phone service after an earthquake.
Every student should keep an emergency kit with a flashlight, extra batteries, a battery-operated radio, emergency drinking water in foil pouches and a few first aid supplies, Regensburger wrote.
Also, families should be aware of the university\'s emergency Web site
http://www.usc.edu, which is backed up outside of southern California.
-
Staff writer Kara Nichols contributed to this report.
09/05 Earthquake Prediction?!?!?!
Linear Mode
